After oscillating between gains and losses through a wobbly and quicksilver trading day and ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy decision, the BSE Sensex on June 4 faintly inched up 13.84 points, or 0.02 per cent, to close at 74,360.01, while the Nifty50 added 10.95 points, or 0.05 per cent, to finish at 23,416.55.
Though the gains were pocket-sized, the session reflected an underlying battle between supportive domestic factors and lingering global concerns. The day belonged neither to the bulls nor the bears. Instead, it was a classic waiting game, with traders keeping their powder dry ahead of the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision scheduled for June 5.
RBI TAKES CENTRE STAGE AS MARKETS HOLD THEIR BREATH
If Thursday’s market had a headline beyond the closing numbers, it was undoubtedly the RBI. Investors remained reluctant to take large directional bets as they awaited guidance from the central bank on interest rates, inflation, liquidity conditions and economic growth.
The six-member monetary policy committee, chaired by RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, is set to announce its decision on Friday. Market participants will closely monitor not only the rate decision but also the central bank’s commentary on inflation risks, growth prospects and external challenges.
With inflation showing signs of moderation but global uncertainties still elevated, investors expect the RBI to strike a careful balance between supporting growth and maintaining price stability. The policy outcome is likely to determine the next significant move for both the Sensex and the Nifty.
VOLATILE SESSION ENDS WHERE IT BEGAN
The market oscillated between gains and losses throughout the session before ending almost exactly where it started. The initial weakness was triggered by cautious global cues and concerns over developments in West Asia. However, selective buying in financials, energy, pharmaceuticals and consumer-focused sectors helped the market recover from intraday lows.
Despite several attempts, the Nifty failed to decisively break above the previous session’s highs, highlighting a lack of strong buying conviction ahead of the policy announcement. Market experts described the session as a consolidation phase rather than a directional move, with investors preferring to await fresh triggers before committing significant capital.
BROADER MARKETS CONTINUE TO OUTSHINE
While benchmark indices remained largely flat, the broader market painted a more encouraging picture. Both the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices closed in positive territory, extending their recent resilience despite heightened uncertainty.
Market breadth remained firmly supportive. Within the Nifty 500 universe, 264 stocks ended the day in positive territory, reflecting healthy participation beneath the surface. The positive advance-decline ratio suggests that investors continue to identify opportunities beyond the benchmark heavyweights, particularly in sectors linked to domestic growth themes. This divergence between broader markets and frontline indices indicates that stock-specific opportunities continue to drive investor interest.
MORE THAN 120 STOCKS TOUCH FRESH 52-WEEK HIGHS
One of the most striking features of the session was the remarkable number of stocks hitting new annual highs. More than 120 companies touched their 52-week highs on the BSE, highlighting the strength of selective buying despite benchmark indices remaining range-bound.
Among the notable names were Cemindia Projects, Nippon Life India Asset Management, Jindal Saw, HFCL, Syrma SGS, Laurus Labs, Polycab, Vodafone Idea, Federal Bank, IFCI, JK Bank, Welspun Corp and RBL Bank.
The large number of new highs reflects investors’ willingness to reward companies demonstrating strong earnings visibility, healthy balance sheets and sector-specific growth opportunities. In many ways, Thursday’s market was less about the index and more about individual stock stories.
SECTORAL ROTATION KEEPS MARKETS AFLOAT
Sectoral performance remained mixed throughout the day, creating a push-and-pull effect on the benchmark indices. Consumer durable stocks attracted strong buying interest, benefiting from expectations of sustained domestic demand and improving consumption trends.
Capital goods shares also witnessed healthy accumulation amid optimism surrounding infrastructure spending and industrial growth. Media, pharmaceutical, banking, oil & gas and energy stocks provided additional support to the market. However, gains were offset by weakness in information technology and metal counters.
The IT sector, which had led the market’s recovery in previous sessions, faced profit-booking pressure. Metal stocks remained under pressure amid concerns regarding global demand and commodity price fluctuations. The sectoral divergence prevented the Sensex and Nifty from registering stronger gains, ultimately resulting in a flat finish.
BANK NIFTY SIGNALS HOPE, BUT CONFIRMATION STILL NEEDED
Among the key technical developments, Bank Nifty showed signs of resilience. The index formed a bullish green candlestick on the daily chart, suggesting buying interest near the lower end of its consolidation range.
However, gains were capped by selling pressure near the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), preventing a decisive breakout. Technical analysts believe a sustained close above 55,200 is necessary to confirm a meaningful bullish breakout that could trigger stronger upside momentum.
Until then, Bank Nifty is expected to remain confined within a broad range of 53,200 to 54,500. Immediate support is seen at 53,500, while resistance remains positioned near 54,500. Given the RBI policy announcement, heightened volatility in banking stocks is widely expected in the coming sessions.
NIFTY REMAINS TRAPPED IN A NARROW RANGE
From a technical perspective, the Nifty continues to send mixed signals. The benchmark index remains below its critical 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting that the broader trend remains vulnerable.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in bearish crossover territory and continues to trend lower, indicating subdued momentum. Analysts note that sentiment may remain cautious as long as the index stays below the crucial 23,500 level. A decisive breakout above 23,500 could open the door for a rally towards 23,700. Conversely, immediate support is placed at 23,370. A break below that level could trigger a decline towards 23,200 and potentially lower levels.
Interestingly, the RSI has been oscillating within a narrow range for nearly 40 trading sessions, underscoring the absence of a strong directional trend. The market appears to be waiting for a catalyst—and that catalyst may well come from the RBI.
TOP MOVERS: WINNERS FIND THEIR RHYTHM
Among individual stocks, several companies delivered noteworthy performances. Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) gained around 1 per cent after reporting robust electricity trading volumes for May, reinforcing confidence in India’s expanding power market.
Agarwal Industrial Corporation emerged as one of the session’s standout performers, soaring 20 per cent after securing a ₹477.5 crore order from Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL). The order significantly strengthened the company’s growth outlook and attracted substantial investor interest.
Among Nifty constituents, Titan and Eternal emerged as the leading gainers, benefiting from stock-specific buying and positive sentiment. Meanwhile, several banking and financial stocks attracted selective accumulation ahead of the RBI policy announcement.
RAJESH EXPORTS FACES REGULATORY HEAT
Not all companies enjoyed a positive session. Rajesh Exports declined approximately 5 per cent after the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) issued an interim ex parte order against the company and its Chairman and Managing Director, Rajesh Mehta.
The regulator raised concerns regarding alleged financial misrepresentation and fund-routing irregularities. The development triggered heavy selling pressure, making the stock one of the day’s biggest losers. The episode also served as a reminder that corporate governance remains a critical factor influencing investor confidence.
GEOPOLITICAL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOVER
Global developments remained firmly on investors’ radar. The ongoing tensions involving the United States and Iran continue to create uncertainty across financial markets. The prolonged crisis in West Asia remains particularly important for India, given its dependence on imported energy.
Forex traders and equity investors alike remain concerned that any escalation could push crude oil prices higher, widen India’s import bill and create inflationary pressures. Although recent reports suggesting a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon helped moderate oil prices, geopolitical risks continue to cast a shadow over investor sentiment. The market’s reluctance to move decisively higher reflects these lingering concerns.
ENERGY SECURITY GAINS STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE
Amid the geopolitical backdrop, Venezuela’s Acting President Delcy Rodríguez visited India for high-level discussions with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar.
The talks focused on energy security, trade and investment cooperation. The visit carries significance because Venezuela has recently emerged as India’s third-largest crude oil supplier. At a time when global energy markets remain volatile, diversification of energy sources is becoming increasingly important for India’s long-term economic stability. Investors are closely watching these developments, given their implications for inflation, trade balances and overall economic growth.
“One of the most striking features of the session was the remarkable number of stocks hitting new annual highs. More than 120 companies touched their 52-week highs on the BSE, highlighting the strength of selective buying despite benchmark indices remaining range-bound”
RUPEE WEAKENS AHEAD OF RBI DECISION
The foreign exchange market mirrored the cautious sentiment seen in equities. The rupee weakened by 7 paise to close provisionally at 95.83 against the US dollar. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the domestic currency opened at 95.70, touched an intraday high of 95.59, and a low of 95.85.
The currency’s weakness reflected persistent concerns regarding global energy prices and geopolitical tensions. Forex dealers noted that India’s heavy dependence on imported crude makes the rupee particularly sensitive to developments in West Asia. The RBI’s commentary on inflation and external sector stability will therefore be closely monitored by currency traders.
GOLD HOLDS STEADY AS INVESTORS AWAIT CLARITY
Gold prices remained largely range-bound near ₹1,59,300. The precious metal found some support from a decline in crude oil prices, but broader sentiment remained cautious. Investors are awaiting multiple triggers, including the RBI policy decision, developments in West Asia, movements in the rupee and key US economic indicators.
The upcoming US Non-Farm Payrolls report and unemployment data are expected to significantly influence global currency and commodity markets. Technically, gold faces immediate support near ₹1,58,500, with resistance around ₹1,60,500.
OIL PRICES AND OMC LOSSES REMAIN A CONCERN
Oil-related concerns continue to occupy centre stage. The Petroleum Ministry indicated that despite multiple fuel price revisions, state-owned oil marketing companies are still incurring under-recoveries of nearly ₹600 crore per day.
The disclosure renewed concerns regarding profitability pressures within the energy sector and broader inflationary risks. Higher energy costs remain one of the most significant challenges facing policymakers and investors alike. Any sustained rise in crude prices could complicate the RBI’s inflation-management efforts and affect corporate earnings.
OUTLOOK: THE WAITING GAME NEARS ITS END
As markets prepare for the RBI’s policy announcement, the prevailing mood remains one of cautious optimism. The Sensex and Nifty may have ended almost unchanged, but beneath the surface, there were signs of resilience. Strong market breadth, a surge in 52-week highs, and continued participation in broader markets suggest that investors are not abandoning risk altogether.
Yet uncertainty continues to dictate the pace. The RBI’s stance on rates, inflation and growth, coupled with developments in West Asia and crude oil markets, will determine whether the next move belongs to the bulls or the bears.
For now, Dalal Street remains in a holding pattern. The Sensex is searching for momentum, the Nifty is waiting for direction, and investors are looking to the RBI for the next clue. In a market where patience has become the preferred trade, Friday’s policy verdict could provide the spark that finally breaks the range and sets the tone for the weeks ahead.
