In a dramatic twist that has reverberated through Maharashtra’s political landscape, Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) has announced its intention to contest the upcoming Lok Sabha elections independently. This decision signifies a profound emotional and strategic blow to the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA), threatening to unravel the delicate tapestry of unity the coalition has painstakingly woven over the years. As the VBA forges its own path, the consequences of this move echo deeply within an electorate already divided by regional and national issues.
In the intricate backdrop of Indian politics, the decision of a prominent leader to walk a solitary path can send ripples across the established order. Ambedkar, a figure synonymous with advocacy and legacy, embarked on a lone journey, potentially reshaping the mercurial political landscape as we approach the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. However, the move poses an intriguing question: Will Ambedkar’s solo venture disturb or even dent the fate of the MVA? As we delve into the nuances of this political gambit, such a decision’s emotional and strategic impacts come to the forefront, possibly altering alliances and voter sentiments across Maharashtra.
STRIDING SOLO: PRAKASH AMBEDKAR’S DEFIANCE AND THE SHIFTING SANDS OF MVA
The announcement from the VBA was not just a political strategy but an emotional earthquake that has unsettled the base of the MVA. Parties like the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), NCP (SP), and Congress, the MVA now face a future where their combined strength could be diluted under the pressure of VBA’s separate agenda. For coalition supporters, this development brings feelings of betrayal and dismay as unity seems to give way under the weight of political ambition and a labyrinth of opportunism.
Ambedkar, bearing the grand legacy of Dr. Bhimrao Ramji Ambedkar, shoulders the profound weight of expectations and responsibilities. An unwavering dedication to social justice and uplifting marginalized communities define his political journey. Over time, Ambedkar has nurtured a devoted Dalit base, drawn to his vision of a society where equity flourishes. Yet, his choice to pursue an independent path in the forthcoming 2024 Lok Sabha elections has stirred both intrigue and unease among friends and foes alike.
The emotional resonance of Ambedkar’s decision cannot be understated like an opportunist’s playbook. For many of his supporters, this move is seen as a bold stand against political conformity and a fight for principles over power. However, others view it with apprehension, concerned about the fragmentation of votes that traditionally would go to the broader opposition alliance, potentially benefiting the ruling coalition. The emotional undercurrents among the electorate are charged with a mix of admiration, betrayal, and fear of the unknown.
The MVA, an alliance between the Shiv Sena, NCP, and Congress, has been a formidable force in Maharashtra politics. Ambedkar’s VBA, by choosing to go solo, might not just alter its fate but also impact the dynamics within the MVA. Analysts speculate that Ambedkar’s independent stance could either significantly dent the MVA’s collective vote bank or compel the alliance to revisit its strategy and outreach, particularly among the Dalit and Muslim communities.
Embarking on a solo path in the tumultuous arena of Indian politics is fraught with risks. The primary challenge for Ambedkar lies in garnering enough support to make a significant electoral impact without the backing of a larger alliance. However, this move also offers a unique opportunity to establish a distinct political identity that could attract voters who are disillusioned with traditional party politics. The reward could be substantial, potentially positioning the VBA as a kingmaker in post-election scenarios.
History offers mixed lessons on the outcomes of political solitude. While some leaders have succeeded in transforming their solitary paths into national movements, others have seen their influence wane without coalition support. The success of Ambedkar’s approach will largely depend on his ability to galvanize support and articulate a vision that resonates deeply with the electorate’s aspirations and concerns.
As the 2024 Lok Sabha elections approach, several scenarios could unfold. If Ambedkar’s VBA manages to capture a significant share of the vote, it could lead to a split in the opposition’s vote bank, potentially benefiting the BJP-led NDA. Alternatively, if the VBA’s campaign galvanizes non-traditional voters and those tired of the existing political rhetoric, it could lead to surprising gains, influencing coalition dynamics and governance models post-election.
Ambedkar’s path is a political strategy and an emotional narrative that speaks to the heart of democratic engagement. As the 2024 Lok Sabha elections draw nearer, Maharashtra’s emotional and political landscape and beyond will be keenly observed, with Ambedkar’s journey being a critical focal point.
DYNAMICS OF AMBEDKAR’S DECISION ON MVA’S FUTURE
Political analysts suggest that the VBA’s decision to compete independently in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections could significantly undermine the prospects of the opposition MVA in Maharashtra. Political analysts said that the ruling alliance, which includes the BJP, Ajit Pawar’s NCP, and Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, may benefit in regions where the VBA has a solid voter base. The analyst said that if the VBA had aligned with the MVA, the opposition could have posed a severe challenge to the BJP-led NDA by consolidating their votes.
How will the VBA’s anticipated independent run in 2024 affect the balance of power between the MVA and the NDA? The News Trajectory Team’s survey delves into the data to answer this pivotal question.
WINDS OF CHANGE: AMBEDKAR’S LONE STAND AND ITS STORM ON MVA’S HORIZONS
Over the past several months, Ambedkar has been a central figure in Maharashtra’s political discussions. There has been much speculation about whether his party, the VBA, would join the INDI-Alliance or stand alone in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
A couple of weeks ago, clarity finally emerged. Ambedkar announced that the VBA would independently contest the upcoming elections. On April 12, his party planned to contest 36 of Maharashtra’s 48 seats, supporting the Congress in Nagpur and Kolhapur and backing Sharad Pawar’s NCP in Baramati. Since this announcement, Ambedkar’s X account became a focal point for political analysts, as he continued to challenge the secular opposition while occasionally critiquing the BJP and the RSS.
Maharashtra’s 48 seats will be contested over five of the seven election phases, a scheduling decision by the Modi administration that some critics argue has been strategically influenced by a compliant Election Commission of India (ECI). The first phase includes five seats in Vidharbha voting on April 19 (Ramtek, Nagpur, Bhandara-Gondiya, Gadchiroli-Chimur, Chandrapur), followed by eight seats from Vidharbha and Marathwada on April 26 (Buldhana, Akola, Amravati, Wardha, Yavatmal-Washim, Hingoli, Nanded, Parbhani). Subsequent phases on May 7, 14, and 20 will see the remaining seats vote, culminating in the last polling day for the state on May 20, which includes Dhule, Dindori, Nashik, Palghar, Bhiwandi, Kalyan, Thane, Mumbai-North, Mumbai North-West, Mumbai North-East, Mumbai North-Central, Mumbai South-Central, and Mumbai-South. The final phases of polling in other parts of the country are scheduled for May 25 and June 1, respectively, leading up to the counting day on June 4, 2024.
News Trajectory’s analysis, assisted by experts, has scrutinized the voter share of the VBA in many of the seats where it ran independently in 2019. In the three seats of the first phase where the VBA is contesting in 2024, an analysis of 2019 data shows that the party garnered a significant 9.75 percent of the total votes polled in the Gadchiroli-Chimur Lok Sabha constituency, which stood at 1,142,698.
Although this represented barely 7.04 percent of the total votes in the Gadchiroli-Chimur constituency, it agglomerated at 1,581,366. In the Chandrapur parliamentary constituency, the VBA polled a substantial 9.05 percent of the votes and 5.86 percent of the total votes, which were 1,910,188 in 2019, while in Bhandara-Gondiya, it garnered less support with 3.68 percent of the votes polled and 2.53 percent of the total 1,811,556 votes.
ISOLATED VANGUARD: THE WEIGHT OF AMBEDKAR’S SOLO PATH ON MAHARASHTRA’S POLITICAL SCALES
The top five constituencies regarding vote share include Akola (where Ambedkar is contesting), Solapur, Hingoli, Buldhana, and Parbhani. In Mumbai, where the VBA is contesting four seats this time, it also drew a few votes last time. For instance, in Akola, of the total registered votes in 2019, 1,865,169, only 1,119,440 voters cast their votes. This indicated that about 745,729 voters still needed to press the ballot buttons. Of those who took part in the ballot, the VBA garnered a substantial 24.91 percent of the vote, which totaled 14.95 percent of the total votes polled in Akola during the last parliamentary elections.
Similarly, in Solapur, out of 1,851,654 votes, only 1,084,165 people voted. The VBA accounted for 15.68 percent of the votes polled and 9.18 percent of the registered vote. In Hingoli, of the total 1,733,729 votes registered in 2019, only 1,157,516 people voted. The VBA commanded 15.04 percent of the votes polled, 10.30 percent of the total registered vote in 2019. In Buldhana, the registered vote in 2019 was 1,762,918, and votes polled in the last parliamentary elections stood at 1,120,359. Of these, the VBA polled 172,627 votes, up to 15.41 percent of the votes and 9.79 percent of the total votes in that constituency. In Parbhani in Marathwada, the total registered votes in 2019 was 1,985,228, and the number of people who voted was 1,252,782. Of the total votes polled, the VBA secured 149,946 votes, a significant 11.97 percent of the votes polled and 7.55 percent of the total registered 2019 vote in Parbhani.
“The MVA, an alliance between the Shiv Sena, NCP, and Congress, has been a formidable force in Maharashtra politics. Ambedkar’s VBA, by choosing to go solo, might not just alter its fate but also impact the dynamics within the MVA”
POLITICAL HEIRS IN FRAY: AMBEDKAR SIBLINGS CHARGE INTO THE 2024 LOK SABHA PITCH
Apart from Ambedkar, the presence of Anandraj Ambedkar in the electoral fray has gone largely unnoticed. Chief of the Republican Sena, this Ambedkar sibling will be fighting on a VBA ticket from Amravati. As the Ambedkar family’s flame rekindles, the new dynasty’s new dawn seems to have ended the bickering between Republican forces, at least in Amravati.
Another brother, Bhimrao Ambedkar, will be contesting from Punjab on an independent party ticket. Bhimrao, like Prakash and Anandraj of the Ambedkar family, has formed his independent political party, the Enlightened Republican Party (EPR), which will be contesting from Hoshiarpur, Punjab. Bhimrao is the national working president of the Indian Buddhist Mahasabha (IBM). But he, too, has registered his independent political party with the Election Commission.
Leaving Maharashtra to Prakash and Anandraj, it seems that Anandraj emphasized expanding his party in other states. Prakash’s VBA, Anandraj’s RS, and Bhimrao’s ERP have been established and operated by the three Ambedkar siblings. Besides, three parties, including the Republican Party of India (RPI), Bharip-Bahujan Federation (BBF), and VBA, have been registered in the name of Prakash alone.
Prakash is currently contesting from Akola in Maharashtra, Anandraj is contesting from Amravati, and Bhimrao from Punjab. The offices of the three parties are located in Mumbai (VBA), Pune (Republican Sena), and Surat (Enlightened Republican Party).
CAN THE OPPOSITION OVERLOOK VBA?
As Maharashtra braces for a collision between the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition MVA alliances in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the significance of the VBA’s 3-4 percent vote share becomes increasingly pivotal.
But why is the VBA critical in Maharashtra’s political landscape? Under the leadership of Ambedkar, the VBA could sway the election outcomes and inflict notable setbacks on the MVA across several of the state’s 48 Lok Sabha constituencies. During the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the VBA, collaborating with another regional party, managed a combined vote share of 6.92 percent. The presence of VBA candidates was believed to have compromised the chances of Congress-NCP nominees in at least eight seats, where they garnered between 1.5 to 2 lakh votes per constituency—a testament to their non-negligible impact.
The VBA boasts robust pockets of support scattered across Maharashtra, with a substantial following among the Dalit community, Muslims, and other groups historically aligned with the Congress. Following the 2019 political shakeup in the state, which saw a Shiv Sena, Congress, and NCP government formation, the VBA maintained a balanced distance from the MVA and the BJP.
The VBA reemerged in the spotlight in 2022 when Uddhav Thackeray and Ambedkar announced their alliance at a public event. Nevertheless, the VBA did not join the MVA, leading other Aghadi constituents to declare that the Vanchit would need to be accommodated by the Shiv Sena (UBT) from its share of seats.
A PORTRAIT OF PARADOX: CONGRESS VIEWS AMBEDKAR AS AN UNPREDICTABLE OPPORTUNIST
In 1998, the Republican Party splintered into four factions, one led by Ambedkar, with Ramdas Athawale at the helm of another. Their coalition in Maharashtra contributed to the Congress winning 36 seats, marking the first occasion the Republican Party secured four seats in the state’s political history. However, Ambedkar later withdrew from the alliance, reinforcing Congress’s reluctance to fully trust Ambedkar, who, over his four-decade career, has pursued politics strictly on his terms, thereby earning the reputation of an ‘unpredictable politician.’
Sources indicate that Ambedkar would begin to demand more whenever negotiations were underway, often leading to stalled deals. This dynamic diluted Congress’s Dalit vote bank, inadvertently benefiting the BJP. Thus, Congress hesitated to negotiate prematurely with him, fearing a sudden departure akin to Nitish Kumar’s exit from the INDI Alliance bloc.
In Maharashtra, the vote shares of the ruling Mahayuti alliance and the MVA are neck and neck, with both alliances tracking at about 40-45 percent. In this tightly contested race, Ambedkar’s VBA, with its 4 percent vote share, assumes a critical role. Despite Ambedkar’s confidence in securing his seat in Akola, he worried that Congress or the MVA would co-opt the VBA’s vote bank if he joined the alliance. Hence, he insisted on maintaining a strategic distance or securing enough seats to preserve his party’s influence.
His demands made forming any alliance challenging; previously, he insisted on nominating Maratha quota activist Manoj Patil for a seat in Jalgaon and proposed that 10 OBC candidates be fielded in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, along with a call for a standard minimum program (CMP). Initially, Ambedkar demanded 26 seats for the VBA, but the MVA offered just about four.
The prolonged negotiations led to deadlock and mutual blame for failing to finalize an alliance. Ambedkar even proposed that all four partners distribute 12 seats, which the MVA ultimately rejected. Subsequently, he recommended that the MVA parties allocate seats among themselves first, after which he would negotiate separately with each.
Caught in a dilemma between safeguarding his vote bank by joining the MVA and seeking electoral victory through an alliance with the MVA, Ambedkar finds himself at a crucial juncture.
Amidst this uncertainty, the potential influence of the VBA’s 3-4 percent vote bank becomes ever more decisive in a bipolar election scenario, underscoring the delicate balance Ambedkar strives to maintain.
Ambedkar stands as both architect and actor in this theater of Maharashtra’s turbulent politics, weaving a narrative steeped in legacy and defiance. His quest is not just about electoral triumphs but about preserving the sanctity of his ideological roots, making each political maneuver a verse in the epic of his life’s work. Meanwhile, Ambedkar’s steadfastness paints a striking contrast in the landscape of Maharashtra’s politics, where allegiances shift like sands beneath the monsoon rains. With the political horizon clouded by opportunistic alliances, his insistence on maintaining independence is not just a strategy but a statement—a clarion call for integrity over convenience. His solitary path is lined with the echoes of his grandfather’s legacy, each step resonating with the fight for justice and equality. And as the curtains rise on the stage of the 2024 elections, Ambedkar’s role in this unfolding drama will be watched with bated
