Maharashtra, a state with a rich political history, is currently in the spotlight as the polling for Lok Sabha seats concluded in five dramatic phases between April 19 and May 20. As we await the results on June 4, the outcome of this election holds immense significance. All eyes will be fixed on the number of seats won by the ruling NDA (National Democratic Alliance) and the INDI-Alliance within this vibrant state. Maharashtra, sending 48 Members of Parliament to the Lok Sabha—the second highest in the nation—holds the key to the future of its two-storied regional parties, the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), both splintered and seeking new destinies.
The wind whispers through the Western Ghats, carrying with it the murmur of an impending storm—one that has the power to reshape the destiny of a nation. As India stands on the precipice of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, all eyes turn towards Maharashtra, a state that holds the pulse of the nation’s political heart. The streets of Mumbai throng with the hopes and dreams of millions, while the hinterlands echo with the promise of change. In this battle of titans, what will tip the scales? What key factors will influence the 2024 Lok Sabha verdict in Maharashtra? The answer lies in the air, thick with anticipation and uncertainty.
The past few years have been a whirlwind of policies, promises, and palpable change. The ruling party’s tenure has been marked by a series of bold moves—some celebrated, others contested. Their track record in addressing economic challenges, infrastructure development, and social welfare schemes will be scrutinized with an eagle eye. Voters will ask: Has the government lived up to its lofty promises? The incumbent’s legacy will weigh heavily on the electorate’s minds, either as a beacon of progress or a burden of unmet expectations.
In the shadow of the ruling party’s monolithic presence, the opposition parties gather strength like storm clouds ready to burst. They aim to present a united front with renewed vigor and strategic alliances. The opposition’s resurgence, particularly the regional powerhouses, will play a pivotal role. Their ability to galvanize support and present a viable alternative to the electorate could be the harbinger of a seismic shift in Maharashtra’s political landscape.
Maharashtra’s socio-political fabric is intricately woven with caste and community dynamics threads. With its significant numerical strength, the Maratha community is a crucial demographic. Their demands for reservation and more excellent political representation have been a fulcrum of contention. The party that successfully addresses the aspirations and grievances of the Maratha community could gain a substantial edge in this high-stakes contest.
The dichotomy between the urban metropolises and the rural heartlands of Maharashtra is stark and profound. Urban voters, nestled in the fast and slow-paced life of cities like Mumbai, Thane, Navi Mumbai, Pune, Nashik, Aurangabad, Jalgaon, Amravati, Kolhapur, Sangli-Miraj-Kupwad, Akola, Ahmednagar, Parbhani, Ichalkaranji, Bhusawal, Satara, Wardha, Nagpur, Udgir and Latur prioritize issues such as employment, infrastructure, and urban development. Meanwhile, the rural populace grapples with agrarian distress and inadequate healthcare and educational facilities. The ability of political parties to bridge this urban-rural divide with inclusive policies and genuine outreach will be a decisive factor in swaying the verdict.
Maharashtra’s economic landscape, often hailed as India’s financial powerhouse, is a double-edged sword. On one hand, the state boasts robust industrial growth and a burgeoning service sector. Conversely, it faces challenges like unemployment, agrarian crises, and economic disparities. The state of the economy, perceived and actual, will play a critical role in shaping voter sentiment. Financial stability and growth will be key issues around which political fortunes will revolve.
The Shiv Sena, once a monolith under the leadership of Bal Thackeray, now finds itself divided. Eknath Sambhaji Shinde’s faction aligns with the BJP-led NDA, known locally as Mahayuti. On the opposite side, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) joins forces with the Congress-led INDI Alliance, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). Similarly, the NCP, a party helmed by the formidable Sharadchandra Govindrao Pawar and known for its strong regional presence, has split, with Ajit Anantrao Pawar’s faction standing with the NDA and Sharadchandra’s faction holding firm with the MVA.
The 2014 Lok Sabha elections heralded a transformative era in Maharashtra’s political saga. The BJP-led Mahayuti surged forth as a formidable force, seizing 42 seats, a triumph they echoed again in 2019, entrenching their dominance. Yet, the political tapestry unraveled dramatically in 2019, as Uddhav Thackeray severed ties with the coalition, weaving a new alliance with the Congress-led MVA to forge a state government. This unexpected twist breathed new life into the ever-evolving story of Maharashtra’s quest for power and progress.
The outcome of this election will resonate deeply, echoing far beyond the present moment. It will set the stage for the impending state assembly elections and the pivotal municipal corporation polls, weaving the future threads of Maharashtra’s political fabric. The stakes are monumental, and the air is thick with anticipation. These results will mirror the dreams and desires of the people, charting the path of Maharashtra’s governance as they journey through waves of transformation, yearning for leaders who will guide them toward a horizon of prosperity and unity.
PIVOTAL FACTORS THAT COULD SHAPE THE DESTINY OF THE 2024 LOK SABHA POLLS FOR THE RULING NDA AND THE INDI-ALLIANCE IN MAHARASHTRA:
Factionalism in Political Parties: The internal strife within Congress has deepened over time, threatening to undermine its performance in the Pune Lok Sabha seat. Dissent has already surfaced, with some party leaders opposing the candidacy of Ravindra Dhangekar (Congress), who only joined Congress a few years ago. While the BJP also grapples with factionalism, its leadership has maintained a united front, ensuring no one dares to challenge its chosen candidates.
POTENTIAL GAINS FROM THE MNS VOTE BANK
Vasant More’s entry as the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) candidate has stirred unease for Murlidhar Mohol (BJP) and Dhangekar. With no Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) candidate in the contest, votes that would have been divided between them may now coalesce around the former MNS leader More, positioning him as their first choice. This potential shift in the vote bank dynamics adds a layer of stoic apprehension and uncertainty to the election outcome.
DIVISION OF SHIV SENA VOTES
Shiv Sena votes that previously bolstered the BJP are now at risk of fragmentation. Eknath Shinde’s faction of Shiv Sena has a limited presence in Pune, whereas Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) retains a foothold in the city. This division could benefit the Congress candidate, as UBT’s alliance with the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) redirects support towards them.
VBA VOTES UPSET CONGRESS PROSPECTS
The VBA, which garnered 65,000 votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, has consistently opposed the BJP, accusing it of exploiting communal sentiments for political gain. Without the VBA, these votes might have naturally flowed to Congress. However, with Prakash Ambedkar’s party still in the fray, this crucial vote bank remains with the VBA, complicating Congress’s prospects.
DALIT AND MINORITY VOTES
Similar to their rhetoric elsewhere, INDI-Alliance leaders in Maharashtra have warned voters that if re-elected, the BJP-led NDA might dismantle reserved quotas for Scheduled Castes (SC), Scheduled Tribes (ST), and Other Backward Classes (OBCs). Though the BJP-led NDA quickly reassured voters that these fears were unfounded, the opposition’s narrative resonated with many.
In Maharashtra, while the OBCs seem firmly in favor of the NDA, the SCs (constituting 12 percent), STs (10 percent), and Muslims (12 percent) represent significant voter blocs in various constituencies. The alliance dynamics have further complicated this picture: the Prakash Ambedkar-led VBA and the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, having fought independently in the past, will not see a repeat of the unified Dalit and Muslim vote as in 2019. Although the VBA has supported INDI-Alliance candidates in some seats while remaining independent in others, the Dalit vote split may lead to narrow margins for the major alliances.
UNPREDICTABLE BRAHMIN COMMUNITY
The Brahmin community, traditionally a stronghold for the BJP in Pune, holds significant sway in the Lok Sabha seat. However, discontent has brewed since the party fielded a non-Brahmin candidate in the Kasba bastion, leading to a loss. For the 2024 Lok Sabha election in Pune, the BJP has again chosen Mohol, a non-Brahmin candidate, risking the alienation of Brahmin voters who may turn their backs on the party.
KUNBI TWIST IN MAHARASHTRA COULD HURT BJP
Maharashtra’s complex socio-political landscape, with the Kunbi community playing a pivotal role, could also present challenges for the BJP. This nuanced interplay of community dynamics will be crucial in determining the electoral outcomes, reflecting the intricate tapestry of Maharashtra’s electorate.
In the 2014 Assembly elections, the BJP, standing tall on its own, achieved a sweeping triumph by capturing 44 of the 62 seats in the Vidarbha region, buoyed by the fervent support of Kunbi voters. However, the political landscape is now fraught with tension, as the government’s decision to include Marathas in the Kunbi category threatens to kindle a fierce OBC backlash, presenting a formidable challenge for the party. Despite BJP leaders’ impassioned assurances at every rally that the OBC reservation will remain inviolate, this move has sown seeds of unrest, casting a shadow over their once-unchallenged support.
Kunbis, a predominantly agrarian Maratha sub-caste with modest land holdings and incomes, spread their roots across Karnataka, Maharashtra, Goa, Andhra Pradesh, and Kerala, becoming eligible for OBC reservation in 2004. The OBC community, a vital electoral base making up about 38 percent of the state’s populace, hesitates to share the reservation benefits with the politically influential Marathas. This contentious decision risks alienating the OBCs, who have traditionally been staunch supporters of the BJP and a cornerstone of the ruling alliance in Maharashtra, potentially fracturing the delicate political coalition that has held sway over the state.
The anxiety stems from the stark difference in influence between the two groups. The Marathas, a politically dominant, landowning community, face increasing pressure as agricultural incomes decline. In 2021, the Supreme Court struck down the state government’s decision to provide 16 percent reservation to Marathas in higher education and government jobs, ruling that they were not a backward community.
One of the loudest voices opposing this notification comes from within the Maharashtra government. Chhagan Bhujbal, a prominent OBC leader and minister in the Shinde government, has termed the reservation for Marathas with Kunbi lineage as a ‘backdoor entry’ into the OBC quota. Historically, attempts to grant Marathas reservation have stumbled against their relative affluence and empowerment compared to other state communities, including OBCs, Scheduled Castes, and Scheduled Tribes.
To circumvent this, Jarange-Patil proposed reclassifying all Marathas as Kunbis under the OBC category. However, as reported by Scroll, this reclassification is fraught with legal challenges and a complex caste history. Centuries ago, the Nizam rulers of Marathwada identified Kunbis as a Maratha sub-caste and issued them identification documents. In 2004, Marathas with Kunbi records were included in Maharashtra’s list of Other Backward Classes and granted reservation. The demand for reservation is most robust in Vidarbha and Marathwada, regions where the agrarian crisis has left several communities impoverished.
As the BJP navigates this intricate and volatile landscape, the decision to include Marathas in the Kunbi category is a double-edged sword. It has the potential to reshape political loyalties and voter bases, casting a shadow over the party’s prospects in the upcoming elections.
While most Marathas in Vidarbha possess Kunbi certificates, many in Marathwada do not. In response to Jarange-Patil’s demands, the Maharashtra government, in a draft notification issued on January 26, extended the provision, allowing the ‘sage-soyare’—a Marathi phrase for family tree—or blood relatives of Kunbis to claim reservation. This move aims to bridge the gap and offer a semblance of equity, stirring emotions and hopes among those who seek inclusion and recognition.
ONION EXPORT BAN AND OTHER AGRARIAN ISSUES
Agrarian distress reverberates deeply in the rural constituencies of Vidarbha and Marathwada. The impact of this crisis is palpable, with candidates who can convincingly address these issues and propose viable solutions for sustainable agricultural practices likely to win the electorate’s favor. Meanwhile, urban constituencies grapple with challenges with infrastructure, housing, and job creation. In Mumbai, voters are concerned about housing shortages, transport woes, pollution, and sustainable development.
The political dynamics between the leading parties and their alliances also significantly influence these elections. The ruling coalition touts its development agenda, while the opposition highlights unemployment, economic slowdown, and democratic values. Regional parties, such as the various factions of Shiv Sena and NCP, play a crucial role. Maharashtra has a robust tradition of regional political movements, and their influence in local constituencies is substantial. Their ability to mobilize grassroots support and address hyper-local issues makes them indispensable players in this electoral phase.
The union government’s policy to impose a 40 percent duty on onion exports in August 2023, followed by a complete export ban until April 2024, has not been well-received by farmers in Maharashtra. The state, known for its vast production of the red onion variety and home to the largest onion market in Lasalgaon, Nashik District, feels the weight of this decision acutely.
“The 2014 Lok Sabha elections marked a significant shift in Maharashtra’s political landscape, with the BJP-led Mahayuti rising as the dominant force, capturing 42 seats—a feat they replicated in 2019, solidifying their grip”
Experts note that the union government has been intervening in the commodities market for over a year, mainly concerning onions, driven by the widely held belief that rising onion and petrol prices contributed to the NDA government’s fall under Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 2004. Although the union government partially lifted the onion export ban shortly after Phase 1 polling, farmers remain disillusioned, especially in western Maharashtra. Farmers in Marathwada and Western Vidarbha are also disheartened by the government’s failure to procure cotton this year and the state government’s delay in starting soybean procurement.
Whether this discontent among farmers will influence their voting patterns remains to be seen. Despite their grievances, many marginal farmers appreciate the union government’s farmer-centric schemes, such as the PM Kisan. The results from the Hatkanangale Lok Sabha seat, where the influential Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatna’s (SSS) Raju Shetty is contesting against both Mahayuti and MVA candidates, will be particularly telling. Similarly, SSS’s Ravikant Tupkar’s candidacy against both coalitions in Buldhana will be closely watched. Additionally, the outcome from the onion-growing region of Nashik will reveal the extent of farmers’ dissatisfaction with the NDA.
These elections are a litmus test, not only for political alliances and development agendas but also for the voices of the agrarian heartland. As the farmers of Maharashtra cast their votes, the nation’s attention will turn to see whether their discontent transforms into a demand for change or a renewed trust in promises of prosperity.
Sympathy for Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar: Shinde’s takeover of the Shiv Sena from Uddhav and Ajit’s assertion of control over the NCP from his uncle Sharad has deeply unsettled the loyal supporters of the former party chiefs. This sentiment is palpable in the emotionally charged rhetoric emanating from Shiv Sena (UBT), branding the Shinde-led faction as traitors and urging voters to punish their candidates by withholding their votes.
Conversely, NCP (SP) leaders like Rohit Pawar have shown visible emotion, shedding tears at election rallies supporting their party’s candidates. Pawar and Supriya Sule, the party’s candidate for Baramati, passionately appealed to voters to stand by them and their leader, Sharad Pawar. These heartfelt pleas have resonated strongly, particularly in the strongholds of both parties.
However, on polling days, it became evident that many voters who intended to support Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP) inadvertently voted for the Shinde-led Sena’s polling symbol, ‘bow and arrow,’ and Ajit-led NCP’s ‘ticking clock’ due to confusion and a lack of awareness about the symbols of the newly formed rival factions.
In this charged atmosphere, the battle for the heart and soul of Maharashtra’s politics is not just about power but also about loyalty, legacy, and the deep emotional bonds between leaders and their supporters.
THE APPEAL OF THE DOUBLE-ENGINE SARKAR: A DAMP SQUIB
Throughout its campaign in Maharashtra, the BJP-led NDA had pinned its hopes on three pillars: the magnetic appeal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi among the masses, the labharthis—beneficiaries of both union and state government schemes—and the narrative of Vikas (development) against bhrashtachar (corruption). Yet, the response from the masses lacked the zeal and enthusiasm seen in the 2014 and 2019 elections.
To rekindle this enthusiasm, the BJP’s top leadership in the state urged Prime Minister Modi to hold as many campaign rallies as possible. Rising to the occasion, Modi held 15 rallies across the five phases of polling, a significant increase from the nine rallies held in 2019.
Mahayuti leaders believe that despite the complex political landscape, marked by splits and defections, the infrastructure initiatives by both the union and state governments will sway voters in their favor. This belief is echoed in the rally speeches of Thackeray and Shinde, who emphasized his dedication to public works. With a flourish of pens, he assured the crowd that he ensures the swift clearance of all files related to public projects, underscoring his commitment to progress and development. Despite the challenges, the NDA remains hopeful that the combined force of development and Modi’s charisma will turn the tide in their favor, even as the political arithmetic grows increasingly intricate.
In the cacophony of political discourse, the voices of the youth often resonate the loudest. First-time voters, brimming with hope and idealism, can sway the elections. Their concerns—education, job opportunities, digital connectivity, and social justice—demand attention. Parties that can effectively engage with the youth, addressing their aspirations and leveraging the power of social media, will find themselves at an advantage.
The clarion call for women’s empowerment rings loud and clear across Maharashtra. From urban centers to rural villages, women are stepping into the spotlight, demanding equal rights, safety, and opportunities. Political parties must address gender equality, women’s safety, and economic empowerment. The support of women voters, who comprise nearly half of the electorate, could be the cornerstone of a successful campaign.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS
The verdant hills and fertile plains of Maharashtra are not immune to the ravages of environmental degradation. Deforestation, pollution, and climate change are gaining prominence in public consciousness. The electorate, particularly the environmentally conscious youth and urban middle class, will look towards parties with clear, actionable plans for sustainable development and environmental conservation.
NATIONAL VS. REGIONAL ISSUES
The tug-of-war between national and regional issues will be a defining feature of Maharashtra’s 2024 Lok Sabha elections. While national security, foreign policy, and economic reforms will dominate the national narrative, regional issues like water scarcity, farmer suicides, and regional development will resonate deeply with the local electorate. The ability of political parties to strike a balance between addressing national imperatives and regional concerns will be critical in winning the hearts and minds of voters.
Meanwhile, as the sun sets over the Arabian Sea, casting a golden hue over Mumbai, the stage is set for a monumental battle. The 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra are more than just a political contest; they reflect millions’ hopes, dreams, and aspirations. The verdict will be shaped by a confluence of factors—the legacy of the incumbent, the resurgence of the opposition, the dynamics of caste and community, the urban-rural divide, economic conditions, the voice of the youth, women’s empowerment, environmental concerns, the influence of social media, and the interplay of national and regional issues.
These elements, like the strings of a sitar, will come together to create a symphony that will echo across the nation. As we stand on the cusp of this momentous event, one thing is sure: the winds of change are blowing, and they promise a new dawn for Maharashtra and India.