In a rocky start to the week, India’s benchmark equity indices, BSE Sensex and Nifty 50, opened on a sour note Monday, eclipsed by a mix of uncertain global cues. At the opening bell, the Sensex dove to 79,388.77, while the Nifty stood at 24,140.15, casting a wave of concerns over the market. While some resilience was visible, with 563 stocks trading in the green, a daunting 1,439 stocks remained in the red, reflecting a cautious sentiment.
The market writhed to convalesce after initial losses, pressured by heavy selling in PSU banks, financial services, pharma, and FMCG sectors. Asian Paints took a harsh hit, plummeting nearly 9 percent as investors reacted to disappointing Q2 results. The company reported a drastic 42.4 percent fall in net profit, dropping to Rs. 694.6 crore from Rs. 1,205.4 crore in the same period last year—a performance that struck a nerve among shareholders.
Elsewhere, Nifty Bank dribbled to 51,472.15, a loss of 89.05 points or 0.17 percent, while the Nifty Midcap 100 fell 357.95 points to 55,994.05, down 0.64 percent. Meanwhile, the Nifty Small Cap 100 index dropped 177.30 points to 18,268.30, a decline of nearly 1 percent, signaling widespread fretfulness across the market.
Axis Bank, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance, Reliance ICICI Bank, UltraTech Cement, Bajaj Finserv, and NTPC led the list of top losers. At the same time, Tata Motors, Power Grid, Maruti, M&M, SBI, HCL Tech, and Infosys emerged as gainers, providing a flicker of hope amidst the mayhem.
Across Asian markets, sentiments were similarly desolate, with Shanghai, Hong Kong, Jakarta, Tokyo, Seoul, and Bangkok all trading in the red. Meanwhile, US markets had closed in the green last Friday, buoyed by optimism as the Dow and S&P 500 surged past 40,000 and 6,000, respectively. However, according to analysts, this sustained US rally no longer provides a stimulant to Indian markets. With expectations riding high on tax cuts and pro-business policies from the Trump administration, American markets are enjoying a boost in corporate earnings—a sentiment not easily mirrored in India’s current market climate.
The day’s hurly-burly underscores an unsettling atmosphere as investors brace for more volatility and question where Indian markets will find their grounds for recovery.
India’s stock market is feeling the weight of disconsolate earnings downgrades for FY25, pushing stock prices down and giving bears the upper hand in the short term. The pressure is deepening with foreign institutional investors (FIIs) pulling out and diverting funds to outperform the US market.
On November 8 alone, FIIs sold off a staggering Rs. 3,404 crore in Indian equities, while domestic institutional investors stepped in with Rs. 1,748 crore in buys—but the balance feels fragile.
As Republican candidate Donald Trump clinches the US Presidency, promising a political shift with a Republican majority in both houses, the focus is now on how this will reshape global markets. Meanwhile, China, battling its economic struggles, has held back from introducing direct support measures, leaving Asia-Pacific markets somber. Investors’ attention is fixed on FIIs, who have been making tactical moves toward China, raising concerns for Indian markets.
The Asia-Pacific region took a hit on Monday after China reported weaker-than-expected inflation numbers for October, with its inflation rate dipping to 0.3 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng plunged by 2.23 percent, while Japan’s Nikkei 225, South Korea’s Kospi, and other regional indices showed similar declines. In contrast, the US S&P 500 surged past 6,000 points to a record high on Friday, with investors celebrating Trump’s decisive victory and a retreat in Treasury yields—yet hopes of resilient support from China cast a shadow over Asian markets.
The mood was tepid back home as Indian markets wrapped up the week with trifling losses amidst a consolidation phase. Amid this backdrop, shares of major players like Hyundai, Nykaa, Ola Electric, Asian Paints, and Tata Motors attracted attention due to recent news and second-quarter earnings results.
Shares of Hyundai, Nykaa, General Insurance, Zydus, and BSE are in the spotlight today as these companies prepare to reveal their second-quarter earnings, a moment that has investors on edge. Tata Motors emerged as a bright spot, surging nearly 3 percent in Monday’s early trades, ranking among the top gainers in the Nifty 50 despite a turbulent trading day. Though Tata Motors’ Q2 performance reflected pressure, particularly with weakened margins at Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), analysts are optimistic for a recovery in the second half of FY25 as JLR’s margin struggles begin to ease.
This quarter’s revenue took a hit, dipping 3.5 percent year-over-year to Rs. 101,450 crore. In comparison, EBITDA margins fell by 230 basis points to 11.4 percent—a reminder of Tata Motors’s external challenges. Still, CLSA upgraded Tata Motors to “outperform” post-results, although other analysts have pared down JLR-parent price targets by as much as 30 percent. Cautious optimism lingers as investors brace for another week of macroeconomic data, quarterly earnings, and fluctuating global trends to shape the market’s path.
All eyes are on the Indian market, with CPI and IIP data set to be released on November 12 and WPI data on November 14. Meanwhile, the US inflation report, due on November 13, could sway the Federal Reserve’s policy stance and, in turn, impact global markets. Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart Ltd, emphasizes the significance of these reports, which could steer the market amidst an array of economic signals.
As significant earnings and global events come to a close, the market’s gaze now sharpens on the crucial data and final earnings announcements that could sway the tides. This week, all eyes will be on the quarterly results from Bank of India, BEML, Hindalco Industries, ONGC, Apollo Tyres, and FirstCry’s parent company, Brainbees Solutions. These reports can potentially steer the market’s direction, setting the stage for a pivotal moment for investors.
Adding to the tension, analysts closely watch the impact of surging US bond yields and the rising dollar index—forces that could cast a long shadow over emerging markets like India. With so much on the line, investors are bracing themselves for what these announcements might reveal, wondering if the market will find solid ground or face yet another wave of uncertainty.
In a market shaped by every tick of global oil prices and rupee-dollar movements, foreign institutional investor activity remains a focal point for Indian equities. As investors look ahead, the stakes feel higher than ever, with global forces and domestic earnings reports converging to set the tone for the coming weeks.
The market’s path forward is delicately balanced and shaped by crucial domestic and global economic data releases. Key indicators like India’s CPI, industrial production, WPI inflation, US CPI, core CPI, jobless claims, UK GDP, and China’s industrial production data will dictate investor sentiment in the coming days.
Last week, a grim picture was painted, with the BSE benchmark slipping 237.8 points (0.29 percent) and the Nifty dropping by 156.15 points (0.64 percent). The persistent weakness in the Indian market is primarily fueled by the continuous exodus of foreign institutional investors (FIIs), who have been selling off at an unrelenting pace. FPIs pulled nearly Rs. 20,000 crore this month alone from Indian equities, seeking value elsewhere as high valuations here push them to look toward other markets, especially China.
This foreign pullback has left a significant dent, with total FPI outflows for 2024 standing at Rs.13,401 crore, while the combined market valuation of six of the top 10 most-valued firms sank by Rs.1,55,721.12 crore just last week. As the market feels the weight of these losses, the pressure on Indian equities has become palpable.
Meanwhile, with markets closed on November 15 for Guru Nanak Jayanti, investors are left to reflect on these stark numbers and brace for what the upcoming data could mean for India’s economic landscape. The stakes feel higher than ever as investors wait to see if the market can find its footing amid this storm of global and domestic shifts.
